The bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes
Bitcoin futures’ once-rich carry has evaporated, with quarterly basis yields trailing two‑year U.S. Treasuries since February, a sign of shrinking arbitrage and a maturing market.
Source: CoinDesk
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DW NOTE
The carry trade was a leveraged bet on Bitcoin's permanent backwardation — the assumption that futures would always clear at a premium because longs outnumber shorts. That premium has now fallen below the two-year Treasury yield for five straight months, the longest drought since the 2022 cycle low. What ended isn't just the arbitrage; it's the illusion that crypto volatility would always pay more than sovereign risk.