China's Next Move Could Decide Where Oil Prices Go This Year
China’s demand for crude oil imports and the pace of its refined products exports will help shape the trend in oil prices through the end of the year, alongside the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Decade-low Chinese crude oil imports have eased upward pressure on oil prices in recent months
Source: OilPrice.com
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DW NOTE
China consumed 16.1 million barrels of oil per day in 2023 — roughly a sixth of global demand. If Beijing's stimulus lands and industrial output accelerates, that's the difference between tight supply pushing Brent through $100 and current disruptions being absorbed without breaching the highs. The piece omits the obvious: Chinese demand has been the swing variable in every major oil cycle since 2008, and this time it's moving against a backdrop where 10–14 million barrels per day are already offline and the Strait is still half-choked with stranded ships.