Understanding Over-Optimism in Tax Revenue-to-GDP Forecasts under IMF-supported Programs - International Monetary Fund | IMF
Understanding Over-Optimism in Tax Revenue-to-GDP Forecasts under IMF-supported Programs - International Monetary Fund | IMF
Source: International Monetary Fund | IMF
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DW NOTE
The IMF's acknowledgement that its own programs systematically overestimate tax revenue gains is less a confession than a structural admission. Countries under Fund programs miss revenue targets not because they miscalculated — they miscalculate because the Fund's fiscal arithmetic requires assuming a tax base that survives the austerity meant to create it. When your model demands 2% more GDP from tax compliance while prescribing the spending cuts that hollow out the compliance infrastructure, the optimism isn't a forecasting error. It's load-bearing.