The economic outlook and some comments on my policy communication
Speech by Mr Christopher J Waller, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview, Washington DC, 3 September 2026.
Source: BIS Central Bank Speeches
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DW NOTE
Waller is eyeing a hold if the next two weeks of data show disinflation continuing. That's Fed-speak for "we probably hike." The Hormuz closure since February has taken 5.7 million barrels per day off global supply, Brent is over $105, and CPI is still at 3.4%. Nothing in that sentence suggests disinflation is continuing. The real tell: he says if August data show the improvement "has been fleeting," they may raise rates — meaning he already expects it was fleeting.