Sovereign Risk and Natural Disaster Shocks: Unraveling the Domestic Yield Curve Response, WP/26/139, July 2026 - IMF eLibrary
Sovereign Risk and Natural Disaster Shocks: Unraveling the Domestic Yield Curve Response, WP/26/139, July 2026 - IMF eLibrary
Source: IMF eLibrary
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DW NOTE
The IMF just published research on how domestic bond yields respond to natural disaster shocks in sovereigns. Someone should send them the 2026 data: when your disaster is a naval blockade that strands 2,000 ships and erases 1.3 billion barrels of supply, yield curves don't respond to hurricanes anymore — they respond to the fact that your central bank is holding rates flat while crude climbs 11% in a month and inflation stays above target.