Macro

Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September

It will be a stretch for the Fed to pause for many reasons, not just the CPI.

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DW NOTE

The Fed held rates at 3.65% in July and the standing guidance is for no change through year-end. The headline posits a September hike based on political pressure and inflation prints that don't appear in the context. Meanwhile the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut for a month, oil supply is forecast down 4.3 million barrels per day for the year, and WTI has fallen 26% from its peak to $83.40. If supply destruction of that scale isn't forcing a hike, CPI theatre won't either.

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Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September

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