Long-Term Treasury Yields Rise to 5.5%, Mortgage Rates to 7.5%, as Bond Market Grapples with a Complex Reality
It would make sense for the bond market to take a breather here and digest a little. But the dynamics are in place for yields to rise further.
Source: Wolf Street
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DW NOTE
The 10-year is at 5.11%, not 5.5%. Wolf Street is extrapolating, not reporting a market fact. When inflation runs at 3.4% official and 5.44% producer, and oil supply is contractually set to fall 6% through 2027 because the Strait remains blocked, a 5% nominal yield is a negative real return with a war premium baked in. The bond market isn't grappling with complexity — it's repricing sovereign debt in a supply shock the Fed can't print its way out of.