Markets

Gold tests $4,450 as Philly Fed, jobless claims firm rate risk - Kitco AM Report - KITCO

Source: KITCO

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DW NOTE

The Philly Fed index and jobless claims confirm what the bond market already priced: no rate cuts in 2026. Gold is down 14.5% from its January peak at $5,318, but the retreat looks like profit-taking, not a structural break — core PCE is still running at 3.3%, oil supply is falling 4.3 million barrels per day, and the fiscal deficit is projected at $1.9 trillion.

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For the first four months of the war between the United States and Israel and Iran, oil traders remained largely bearish. The overwhelming expectation was that the war would end soon—even as July rolled around—and oil flows out of Hormuz would recover. Instead, the world is slipping into a fuel shor

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