Europe’s Gas Forecasts Are Not an Energy Strategy
Energy models have an unusual talent. However chaotic the present may be, the future almost always becomes remarkably calm. Wars end. Shipping lanes reopen. LNG terminals work as planned. Winters remain manageable. Producers deliver. Markets rebalance. And natural gas prices gradually return to a sm
Source: OilPrice.com
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DW NOTE
Europe spent two decades replacing nuclear baseload with gas dependency, then acted surprised when the supplier weaponised the infrastructure. Now it publishes demand forecasts and calls them policy. A forecast is not a hedge, not a storage facility, not a pipeline that doesn't run through a war zone. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late September — one tanker through versus the usual 85 per day — and Europe is still writing papers about 2030 LNG import assumptions.