Citadel bets on a Fed rate hike Wednesday as bitcoin analysts call a hold. Someone will be wrong.
Citadel's macro team says Wednesday's hike isn't about the data. It's about Warsh's best shot at making a surprise actually count before the market stops being surprised.
Source: CoinDesk
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DW NOTE
Citadel is calling a hike at 3.75% inflation because it thinks Warsh wants to shock markets before they price in September. But the market has already repriced: the 10-year is at 4.65%, up 6% in a month, and the VIX is 21% above last year. If Warsh hikes into that, he's not reasserting independence — he's lighting a fuse under assets that are already down 6.57% on the Nasdaq this month.